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10.04.06. - Âîçðîäèòñÿ ëè «Ðîäèíà»? (îïðîñ ÂÖÈÎÌ)
: 10.04.2006 @ 08:49:10 : komochkin

Íîâîñòè
ÏÀÐÒÈß «ÐÎÄÈÍÀ»: ÂÎÇÌÎÆÍÎ ËÈ «ÂÒÎÐÎÅ ÐÎÆÄÅÍÈÅ?»


ÌÎÑÊÂÀ, 3 àïðåëÿ 2006 ã. Âñåðîññèéñêèé öåíòð èçó÷åíèÿ îáùåñòâåííîãî ìíåíèÿ (ÂÖÈÎÌ) ïðåäñòàâëÿåò äàííûå î òîì, êàê ðîññèÿíå îòíîñÿòñÿ ê ïîëèòè÷åñêèì ïàðòèÿì â öåëîì è «Ðîäèíå» â ÷àñòíîñòè, à òàêæå ê Äìèòðèþ Ðîãîçèíó.


Äåÿòåëüíîñòü ïîëèòè÷åñêèõ ïàðòèé îäîáðÿþò 18% ðîññèÿí, òîãäà êàê ñâûøå ïîëîâèíû, 56%, íå îäîáðÿþò å¸, íàèáîëåå ñêåïòè÷íî íàñòðîåíû ñòîëè÷íûå æèòåëè (+2%, –69%). Åñëè áû âûáîðû â Ãîñóäàðñòâåííóþ Äóìó ñîñòîÿëèñü â áëèæàéøåå âîñêðåñåíüå, òî çà ïàðòèþ «Ðîäèíà» ïðîãîëîñîâàëè áû 2% îïðîøåííûõ. Ëèøü 4% ðåñïîíäåíòîâ íàçûâàþò ñåáÿ è ñåãîäíÿ ñòîðîííèêàìè ýòîé ïàðòèè; åù¸ 8% áûëè â ïðîøëîì å¸ ñòîðîííèêàìè, íî çàòåì ðàçî÷àðîâàëèñü â íåé. Íàïðîòèâ, 13% îïðîøåííûõ óêàçûâàþò, ÷òî ðàíåå íå áûëè ñòîðîííèêàìè «Ðîäèíû», íî òåïåðü îíà âûçûâàåò ó íèõ èíòåðåñ. Îòìå÷àþò, ÷òî ýòà ïàðòèÿ íèêîãäà íå âûçûâàëà ó íèõ ñèìïàòèè, 22% ðåñïîíäåíòîâ. Íî áîëüøå âñåãî òåõ, êòî âîîáùå íè÷åãî íå çíàåò î «Ðîäèíå» ëèáî çàòðóäíÿåòñÿ ñêàçàòü âûðàçèòü ñâî¸ îòíîøåíèå ê íåé (53%, ñðåäè ìîëîä¸æè – 63%).


Ëèøü 12% îïðîøåííûõ ïîëàãàþò, ÷òî «Ðîäèíà» ñåãîäíÿ ëèáî ðàáîòàåò è ðàçâèâàåòñÿ íîðìàëüíî, ëèáî äàæå óñèëèâàåò ñâîè ïîçèöèè. À 36% ñ÷èòàþò, ÷òî ýòà ïàðòèÿ â êðèçèñå. Áîëåå ïîëîâèíû ðîññèÿí, 54%, çàòðóäíÿþòñÿ îöåíèòü ñèòóàöèþ â ïàðòèè. Ðåñïîíäåíòîâ ñêîðåå îòòàëêèâàåò òî, êàê «Ðîäèíà» âåä¸ò ïîëèòè÷åñêóþ áîðüáó è çàùèùàåò èíòåðåñû èçáèðàòåëåé (+12%, –34%), å¸ ëèäåðû (+16%, –32%), èäåîëîãèÿ è ëîçóíãè ïàðòèè (+18, –29%); 52–54% îïðîøåííûõ çàòðóäíÿþòñÿ ñ îöåíêàìè. Ãëàâíîé ïðè÷èíîé, âûçâàâøåé êðèçèñ â «Ðîäèíå», ïî ìíåíèþ îïðîøåííûõ, ÿâëÿåòñÿ íå ñòîëüêî å¸ íàöèîíàëèñòè÷åñêàÿ íàïðàâëåííîñòü â ïîñëåäíåå âðåìÿ (ëèøü 9% ñâÿçûâàþò êðèçèñ èìåííî ñ ýòèì îáñòîÿòåëüñòâîì) èëè ÷ðåçìåðíàÿ îïïîçèöèîííîñòü (8%), ñêîëüêî ïîñòîÿííûå êîíôëèêòû â ðóêîâîäñòâå ïàðòèè (22%), àìáèöèè è ïîëèòè÷åñêèå îøèáêè Äìèòðèÿ Ðîãîçèíà (15%), ñêàíäàëüíûé ñòèëü ïîâåäåíèÿ íåêîòîðûõ äåïóòàòîâ îò «Ðîäèíû» (11%). Ïàðòèÿ èìååò ïîëèòè÷åñêèå ïåðñïåêòèâû, ïîëàãàþò 21% îïðîøåííûõ (â èõ ÷èñëå 13% îãîâàðèâàþò íåîáõîäèìîå óñëîâèå – ñìåíó ëèäåðîâ, ÷òî îò÷àñòè óæå ïðîèçîøëî); ìåæäó òåì 33% ðåñïîíäåíòîâ áîëüøîé ïåðñïåêòèâû ó ýòîé ïàðòèè íå âèäÿò, è ïî÷òè ïîëîâèíà, 46%, çàòðóäíÿþòñÿ ñ ïðîãíîçîì áóäóùåãî «Ðîäèíû».


Ñðåäè ëèäåðîâ ïàðòèè íàèáîëåå èçâåñòåí ðîññèÿíàì Ä. Ðîãîçèí (åãî íàçûâàþò 53% îïðîøåííûõ), 26% óêàçûâàþò Ñ. Ãëàçüåâà, 13% – Ñ. Áàáóðèíà, ëèøü 2% – À. Áàáàêîâà, èçáðàííîãî íîâûì ëèäåðîì «Ðîäèíû»; 42% íå çíàþò íèêîãî èç ëèäåðîâ ýòîé ïàðòèè. Íàèáîëüøóþ èíôîðìèðîâàííîñòü î âåäóùèõ ïåðñîíàõ «Ðîäèíû» ïðîÿâëÿþò æèòåëè Ìîñêâû è Ñàíêò-Ïåòåðáóðãà. Ñ ðóêîâîäñòâîì ýòîé ïàðòèåé ëó÷øå âñåõ ìîã áû ñïðàâèòüñÿ Ñ. Ãëàçüåâ (ïîëàãàþò 12% îïðîøåííûõ) èëè Ä. Ðîãîçèí (11%), 4% õîòåëè áû âî ãëàâå ïàðòèè âèäåòü Ñ.Áàáóðèíà, 1% – À. Áàáàêîâà. È 68% çàòðóäíÿþòñÿ ñ îòâåòîì.


Ñâûøå òðåòè ðîññèÿí (37%) ïîëàãàþò, ÷òî Ä. Ðîãîçèí íè÷åì îñîáûì ñðåäè ðîññèéñêèõ ïîëèòèêîâ íå âûäåëÿåòñÿ; åùå 10% ñ÷èòàþò åãî ïîëèòè÷åñêèì ýêñòðåìèñòîì è íàöèîíàëèñòîì, 7% – ñëó÷àéíûì ÷åëîâåêîì â ïîëèòèêå. Ëèøü 12% âîñïðèíèìàþò åãî êàê ÿðêîãî ïîëèòè÷åñêîãî ëèäåðà. Áóäóùåå Ðîãîçèíà â ïîçèòèâíûõ òîíàõ âèäÿò 12% îïðîøåííûõ (3% ïîëàãàþò, ÷òî îí èìååò âñå øàíñû ïðåòåíäîâàòü íà ïîñò ïðåçèäåíòà ñòðàíû, 9% ïðåäñêàçûâàþò åìó áóäóùåå îäíîãî èç âåäóùèõ ïîëèòèêîâ Ðîññèè), à 15%, íàîáîðîò, â íåãàòèâíûõ, ïðîãíîçèðóÿ, ÷òî îí ñêîðî ñîéä¸ò ñ ïîëèòè÷åñêîé àðåíû. Íî çíà÷èòåëüíî áîëüøå òåõ (35%), êòî âèäèò åãî áóäóùåå êàê îäíîãî èç ìíîãî÷èñëåííûõ ïîëèòèêîâ, íå èãðàþùèõ ñåðü¸çíîé ðîëè â óïðàâëåíèè ñòðàíîé.


Ýëåêòîðàëüíûé «ïîòîëîê» Ä. Ðîãîçèíà êàê ïîòåíöèàëüíîãî êàíäèäàòà â ïðåçèäåíòû Ðîññèè ñåãîäíÿ íå ïðåâûøàåò 9%, èìåííî ñòîëüêî îïðîøåííûõ íå èñêëþ÷àþò äëÿ ñåáÿ âîçìîæíîñòè ïðîãîëîñîâàòü çà íåãî íà ïðåçèäåíòñêèõ âûáîðàõ, â òîì ÷èñëå 3% ãîòîâû ýòî ñäåëàòü áåçóñëîâíî. Áîëüøèíñòâî, 70%, íàïðîòèâ, íå âèäÿò äëÿ ñåáÿ âîçìîæíîñòè îòäàòü ñâîé ãîëîñ çà Ðîãîçèíà, ïðè÷¸ì 36% ïîëíîñòüþ èñêëþ÷àþò äëÿ ñåáÿ ýòîò âàðèàíò. Ñðåäè ïðîòèâíèêîâ äåéñòâóþùåãî ïðåçèäåíòà Â. Ïóòèíà áîëüøå, ÷åì ñðåäè åãî ñòîðîííèêîâ, òåõ, êòî ãîòîâ ãîëîñîâàòü çà Ä. Ðîãîçèíà íà ïðåçèäåíòñêèõ âûáîðàõ (10% è 6%).


Ñ èçâåñòíûìè îáâèíåíèÿìè â àäðåñ «Ðîäèíû» è Ðîãîçèíà â ïðîïàãàíäå íàöèîíàëèñòè÷åñêèõ, ôàøèñòñêèõ èäåé, áîëåå-ìåíåå ñîãëàñíû 19% îïðîøåííûõ, íå ñîãëàñíû – 35%. Êàæäûé âòîðîé (47%) çàòðóäíÿåòñÿ ñ îöåíêîé.


Âñåðîññèéñêèé îïðîñ ÂÖÈÎÌ ïðîâåä¸í 25–26 ìàðòà 2006 ã. Îïðîøåí 1591 ÷åëîâåê â 153 íàñåëåííûõ ïóíêòàõ â 46 îáëàñòÿõ, êðàÿõ è ðåñïóáëèêàõ Ðîññèè. Ñòàòèñòè÷åñêàÿ ïîãðåøíîñòü íå ïðåâûøàåò 3,4%.


Âû â öåëîì îäîáðÿåòå èëè íå îäîáðÿåòå äåÿòåëüíîñòü ïîëèòè÷åñêèõ ïàðòèé?

 

Âñåãî îïðîøåííûõ
Òèï ïîñåëåíèÿ
Ìîñêâà è Ñàíêò-Ïåòåðáóðã
Áîëåå 500 òûñ. æèòåëåé
100–500 òûñ.
Ìåíåå 100 òûñ.
Ѹëà
Îäîáðÿþ
18
2
18
18
18
22
Íå îäîáðÿþ
56
69
53
58
53
56
Çàòðóäíÿþñü îòâåòèòü
26
29
29
22
29
22

Êàêîâî Âàøå îòíîøåíèå ê ïàðòèè «Ðîäèíà»?


Âñåãî îïðîøåííûõ

Âîçðàñò, ëåò

18–24

25–34

35–44

45–59

60 è ñòàðøå

ß áûë è îñòàþñü ñòîðîííèêîì ýòîé ïàðòèè

4

2

5

2

6

5

ß áûë ñòîðîííèêîì ýòîé ïàðòèè, íî ñåé÷àñ â íåé ðàçî÷àðîâàëñÿ

8

5

6

7

8

12

ß íèêîãäà íå áûë ñòîðîííèêîì ýòîé ïàðòèè, íî ñåé÷àñ îíà âûçûâàåò ó ìåíÿ èíòåðåñ

13

11

13

14

15

10

Ìíå íèêîãäà íå íðàâèëàñü ïàðòèÿ «Ðîäèíà»

22

19

21

22

26

21

ß íè÷åãî íå çíàþ îá ýòîé ïàðòèè

37

43

38

39

32

37

Çàòðóäíÿþñü îòâåòèòü

16

20

17

16

13

15


Íà Âàø âçãëÿä, êàêàÿ ñèòóàöèÿ ñåãîäíÿ ñëîæèëàñü â ïàðòèè «Ðîäèíà»?

Ýòà ïàðòèÿ ñåãîäíÿ íîðìàëüíî ðàáîòàåò è ðàçâèâàåòñÿ

8

Ýòà ïàðòèÿ ñåãîäíÿ ñêîðåå îñëàáëÿåò ñâîè ïîçèöèè, íàõîäèòñÿ â êðèçèñå

36

Ýòà ïàðòèÿ â ïîñëåäíåå âðåìÿ ñêîðåå óñèëèâàåò ñâîè ïîçèöèè

4

Çàòðóäíÿþñü îòâåòèòü

50

Íåò îòâåòà

2


×òî Âàñ ïðèâëåêàåò, à ÷òî îòòàëêèâàåò â ïàðòèè «Ðîäèíà»?


Èäåîëîãèÿ è ëîçóíãè ýòîé ïàðòèè

Ëèäåðû ïàðòèè

Òî, êàê ïàðòèÿ âåäåò ïîëèòè÷åñêóþ áîðüáó, çàùèùàåò èíòåðåñû èçáèðàòåëåé

Ñêîðåå ïðèâëåêàåò

18

16

12

Ñêîðåå îòòàëêèâàåò

29

32

34

Çàòðóäíÿþñü îòâåòèòü

53

52

54


Ñ ÷åì Âû ñâÿçûâàåòå íûíåøíèé êðèçèñ, ïåðåæèâàåìûé ïàðòèåé «Ðîäèíà»? (äî òð¸õ îòâåòîâ)

Ñ ïîñòîÿííûìè êîíôëèêòàìè âíóòðè ðóêîâîäñòâà «Ðîäèíû»

22

Ñ àìáèöèÿìè è ïîëèòè÷åñêèìè îøèáêàìè åå íûíåøíåãî ëèäåðà Ä. Ðîãîçèíà

15

Ñî ñêàíäàëüíûì ñòèëåì ïîâåäåíèÿ îòäåëüíûõ äåïóòàòîâ îò ôðàêöèè "Ðîäèíà"

11

Ñ íàöèîíàëèñòè÷åñêîé íàïðàâëåííîñòüþ å¸ èäåîëîãèè, ðàçæèãàíèåì íàöèîíàëüíîé ðîçíè

9

Ñ ÷ðåçìåðíîé îïïîçèöèîííîñòüþ ïàðòèè â îòíîøåíèè ïðåçèäåíòà è ïðàâèòåëüñòâà

8

Äðóãîå

0

ß íå âèæó íèêàêîãî êðèçèñà âíóòðè «Ðîäèíû»

3

Íå èíòåðåñóþñü äåÿòåëüíîñòüþ ýòîé ïàðòèè

25

Çàòðóäíÿþñü îòâåòèòü

30


Êàêèìè Âû âèäèòå ïåðñïåêòèâû ïàðòèè «Ðîäèíà»?

Ó ýòîé ïàðòèè áîëüøîå áóäóùåå

8

Ó ýòîé ïàðòèè áîëüøîå áóäóùåå, íî ïðè óñëîâèè ñìåíû ëèäåðîâ

13

Ýòà ïàðòèÿ íå èìååò áîëüøîé ïîëèòè÷åñêîé ïåðñïåêòèâû

33

Çàòðóäíÿþñü îòâåòèòü

46



Êòî èç ëèäåðîâ ïàðòèè «Ðîäèíà» Âàì èçâåñòåí? (îòêðûòûé âîïðîñ, ëþáîå ÷èñëî îòâåòîâ)

Êòî èç ëèäåðîâ «Ðîäèíû» ìîã áû â íàèëó÷øåé ñòåïåíè ñïðàâèòüñÿ ñ ðóêîâîäñòâîì ýòîé ïàðòèåé?

Ðîãîçèí

53

11

Ãëàçüåâ

26

12

Áàáóðèí

13

4

Áàáàêîâ

2

1

Íàðî÷èíñêàÿ

1

1

Çàòðóäíÿþñü îòâåòèòü

41

69


Êàê  áû Âû îöåíèëè Ä. Ðîãîçèíà?

Ýòî ÿðêèé ïîëèòè÷åñêèé ëèäåð

12

Ýòî ïîëèòè÷åñêèé ýêñòðåìèñò, íàöèîíàëèñò

10

Ýòî ñëó÷àéíûé ÷åëîâåê â ïîëèòèêå

7

Ýòî ïðîñòî ïîëèòèê, êàêèõ ìíîãî

37

Çàòðóäíÿþñü îòâåòèòü

33


Êàêèì Âû âèäèòå ïîëèòè÷åñêîå áóäóùåå Äìèòðèÿ Ðîãîçèíà?

Îí èìååò âñå øàíñû ïðåòåíäîâàòü íà ïîñò ïðåçèäåíòà ñòðàíû

3

Îí ñòàíåò îäíèì èç âåäóùèõ ïîëèòèêîâ Ðîññèè

9

Îí ñêîðî ñîéäåò ñ ïîëèòè÷åñêîé àðåíû

15

Îí áóäåò ëèøü îäíèì èç ìíîãî÷èñëåííûõ ïîëèòèêîâ, íå èãðàþùèõ ñåðüåçíîé ðîëè â óïðàâëåíèè ñòðàíîé

35

Çàòðóäíÿþñü îòâåòèòü

37


Äîïóñêàåòå ëè äëÿ ñåáÿ âîçìîæíîñòü ïðîãîëîñîâàòü çà Äìèòðèÿ Ðîãîçèíà êàê  êàíäèäàòà â ïðåçèäåíòû?


Âñåãî îïðîøåííûõ

Îäîáðÿþùèå/íå îäîáðÿþùèå äåÿòåëüíîñòü Â. Ïóòèíà

Îäîáðÿþùèå

Íå îäîáðÿþùèå

Çàòðóäíÿþùèåñÿ
ñ îöåíêîé

Áåçóñëîâíî, äà

3

2

3

3

Ñêîðåå äà

6

6

10

5

Ñêîðåå íåò

32

34

29

19

Áåçóñëîâíî, íåò

38

37

43

30

Çàòðóäíÿþñü îòâåòèòü

21

21

15

43


Åñòü òî÷êà çðåíèÿ, ÷òî ïàðòèÿ «Ðîäèíà» è å¸ ëèäåð Äìèòðèé Ðîãîçèí ïðîïàãàíäèðóþò íàöèîíàëèñòè÷åñêèå, ôàøèñòñêèå èäåè. Ñîãëàñíû ëè Âû ñ ýòèì?

Ïîëíîñòüþ ñîãëàñåí

4

Ñêîðåå ñîãëàñåí

15

Ñêîðåå íå ñîãëàñåí

24

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